Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
